Targeting
Terrorists: A cost-benefit analysis
By Boaz Ganor
ICT Executive Director
When analyzing the
question of targeted attacks against terrorists as a
counter-terrorism measure, there are two aspects that need to be addressed:
the matter of
the moral and legal implications and the question of the effectiveness
of such a strategy.
With regard to the moral question, it can be argued that since the Palestinians
imposed a war of
attrition on Israel in October 2000, Israel is morally allowed, in the
face of a terrorist and
guerilla war, to use violence in self-defense directly against terrorists
engaged in
executing these attacks.
However, one must
differentiate between attacks against actual terrorists, who are directly
involved in executing attacks on civilians, and members of the political
wing of a terrorist organization. While the leaders and activists of the
organization's
political wing are not legitimate targets of attack, it is legal by any
standard of
international legislation to use violence against enemy military personnel,
especially in time of war. Moreover, compared to most other counter-terrorist
offensive measures, targeted attacks on individual
terrorists are more selective, and less likely to result in collateral
damage, and thus more
humane.
This brings us to
the question of whether targeted attacks can be viewed as an effective
means
of combating terrorism. This question can only be answered by means of
a cost-benefit analysis.
On the benefit side, we can place two factors: as long as the targets
of these attacks are
terrorists of an organization's military wing, who are personally engaged
in either the
preparation or the execution of severe terrorist attacks, neutralizing
these people may greatly
influence the capability of the terrorist organization to execute the
attacks. In any event, the
operation will disrupt terrorist attacks that are in the final stages
of preparation by the people
targeted. At the same time, hitting the terrorists may also influence
the organization's long-term
capability to carry out attacks. The second factor on the benefit side
of the equation is that
members of the organization's military wing will need to spend time and
resources in guarding
themselves; in the past Hamas terrorists were known to request that the
Palestinian Authority
place them in protective detention. Others are forced to be continually
on the move from place
to place for their own safety. All of this naturally disturbs the day-to-day
operations of a
terrorist organization, and with it, the process of preparing and carrying
out attacks.
On the cost side of
the equation, there are several factors which should
be taken into account. The first is the physical costs of the counter-terrorist
operation --
the monetary and technological costs -- which are usually negligible.
The second and more
significant cost is the intelligence damage. Since this kind of operation
requires concrete and
accurate intelligence, in the wake of the operation, the Palestinian Authority
will do everything
possible to locate the sources of Israeli intelligence. Thus, the targeting
of the terrorists
can result in intelligence sources being either withdrawn or blown. Thirdly,
there is the matter of
the operation's cost in terms of Israel's international image. The majority
of Western countries
do not view the deliberate targeting of terrorists as a legitimate operation,
unless the
terrorists involved were acting against their own country. Thus, carrying
out such operations
inevitably leads to expressions of international condemnation. This is
true even though
Israel is careful to limit the use of such measures solely to military
targets. The terrorists
themselves are, of course, held to no such exacting standards, and concentrate
on deliberate attacks
against civilians.
But the most significant
potential cost in carrying out this type of
operation is the boomerang effect. Like any other effective offensive
activity against a terrorist
organization, targeted attacks immediately raise the motivation of that
organization to
retaliate. What the outcome of this will be all depends on the previous
motivation and capability of
the organization targeted.
If the organization's ability to execute terror attacks is limited only
by its operational capability,
then, while the killing of the organization's operatives may raise the
group's motivation, this
cannot be translated into actual retaliatory attacks.
However, when the
organization is limited in its terrorist activity by motivation and interests,
rather than by operational capability, then one should expect a backlash
to occur. With regard to
Hamas, which relies heavily on suicide bombings, we can conclude that
the organization is not
limited by its capability to carry out attacks. Suicide bombings are the
most primitive type of
attack, demanding little in the way of skills or physical resources. Due
to its extensive network
of indoctrination, Hamas has no problem finding volunteers for this type
of activity. And since
the PA has not even begun to dismantle the Hamas military infrastructure,
the organization can
easily put together a simple explosive device comprising several kilograms
of material. Thus,
the motivation of Hamas is definitely going to be higher in the wake of
Israel's counter-terrorist
activity, and this will very likely be translated into retaliatory attacks.
In the end, the determination
of the effectiveness of a particular targeted attack depends on the
the net sum of all these costs and benefits. Israeli intelligence can
be assumed to be in
possession of concrete information on what these "ivy league"
terrorists were engaged in before
they were killed. The security apparatus is thus the only body in a position
to effectively analyze
whether the operation was worth the possibility of one or more "boomerang"
attacks.
|